Whether you’re a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or somebody who’s just plain tired of it all, the [00:01:00] politics part, the decisions made in Washington affect your wallet, your family, your business, and your future. I’ve got two guys in studio understand this world from very different angles, but we all kind of circle back to the same.

Brian Mudd knows what voters are thinking and what the numbers are telling us, and Don Stu, I’ll be calling him Stu. Stuart, Don Stewart has been inside the rooms where political strategy gets made, and I’m going to play kind of a pseudo-moderator today. No political jersey, no shouty matches. I just want my squad walking away understanding what’s at stake and what they should be paying attention to.

And just real quick, a little bit more bio on both of my Varsity Squad guests here. First up, a man needs very little introduction to the South Florida listeners, my friend and radio mentor, Brian Mudd. Brian’s been behind a microphone since he was a teenager, and his obsession with talk radio actually started when he was searching for an Atlanta Braves baseball game and accidentally stumbled onto a Rush Limbaugh show.

Talk about taking an unexpected turn. Today, Brian is South Florida’s most recognizable radio voices, bringing us the stories that impact our lives every morning right here on [00:02:00] WJNO. He’s also filled in for nationally syndicated hosts Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, and appeared across major television news networks.

And also joining us is my Capitol buddy. A man who spent years in the room where Washington’s biggest political battles were being fought, Don Stewart, Stewy. Stu served as Deputy Chief of Staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, was the youngest serving chief spokesman for a US Senate leader, and helped navigate six Supreme Court nomination debates.

Think about that, my squad. While the rest of us were watching the political fireworks on television- Getting the right story or not, Stu is helping managing the strategy behind the scenes. He’s also an Army veteran, a communication strategist, and someone who understands how Washington operates when the microphones are turned off.

So again, today we’re putting the radio veteran and the Washington insider together, and we’re gonna have some fun. And gentlemen, thank you so much for coming in, man. This is a blessing. 

Brian Mudd: Pleasure. 

Coach Fergie: And actually it was Stu that brought it up. He’s like, “Hey, what do you think about doing something for the election?”

I was like, “Hey, what if we brought Mutt in and- Yeah … brian in and, have some [00:03:00] fun with it,” right? And, with Brian, we’re days away from next what is it, the 30th of October right now. You’ll be hearing this on the 31st, Squad the, when it’s out there. So we just have a few days away from the election.

If you’re to describe the, kind of the political mood of South Florida or even America right now in one word, what do you think it would be? 

Brian Mudd: Frustrated. 

Coach Fergie: Okay. 

Brian Mudd: Without a doubt frustrated. Now, one of the things that’s really important, and this is certainly true nationally, it’s absolutely true in Florida as well, one of the things that you run into in any midterm election cycle is a great deal of history.

The political inertia that you will find in midterm election cycles is unlike anything else you will find in politics, in that since the advent of the two-party system in the 1860s, you’ve had 41 midterm election cycles. Only three out of those 41 times have you had the president’s party fare best [00:04:00] nationally in midterm elections.

And each one of those outliers, those three times- Wow … it has required a historically significant event that led to the president’s party faring best. First time was FDR And that was Great Depression, New Deal. Did not happen again until Bill Clinton in 1998 Right And that was a backlash by voters to his impeachment and the most recent time was actually four years later, 2002 when George W.

Bush was president that was post 9/11. So it’s taken the Great Depression and impeachment that voters didn’t want to see happen and 9/11- … to bring about the president’s party faring bad. So the number one thing- Wow … that anybody needs to know going into this midterm election cycle- 

… 

Brian Mudd: Democrats were always likely to win nationally.

And so the question then becomes as you back it down to the state of Florida, for example, what does that look like in a [00:05:00] state where voter registration for Republicans is now plus 12.4 points? 

Suddenly those double digit wins of four years ago in the state of Florida- 

… 

Brian Mudd: That, those aren’t going to be double digit wins anymore.

And so then you begin to and can Democrats through the NPAs in the state, can they make up the ground there? And so then it becomes the turnout game, and that without a doubt is the reason that you have seen President Trump go on defense in traditionally red states, including in the state of Florida and Daytona Beach, which should be prime, red territory.

Coach Fergie: Wow. That was, that’s deep in the knowledge that he just brings to the table. Two sides to every story, one s- one fact, and that’s Brian. Love it. And Stuie, so you’ve been in the political trenches literally for decades. 

So you’ve, you c- in also doing some research, you compared this election to 2006 when- the Democrats won races in places the Republicans expected to hold, right? So what are you seeing today that might give you the same feeling? 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah, like Brian said, midterm elections- [00:06:00] And the president’s, halfway through his term. I go- 2006 is the same thing. It was the mid- second midterm of the president’s second…

It was the midterm of the president’s second term. 

Coach Fergie: Gotcha. 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: We’re in the same place here, even though there was a lag in between- Sure … the two terms. It’s the midterm of a second term when people are- have the most fatigue for the president at the president’s part. So if you’re a Republican, this was the worst environment for you to run in.

There’s a war, economy’s not awesome, the president has really low approval rating. So it’s exactly like 2006 in those regards, but the difference is we have the Republicans have a lot more money involved in this race, and Trump is a lot more aggressive on the campaign trail. And where he’s popular, he’s going.

Daytona, for example, shouldn’t be in play, but he’s very popular there, and he’s getting the troops out to vote. 

Coach Fergie: Getting them out there. Yeah. And if we were to talk about the elephant in the room, Brian the affordability that it’s going on. Politicians, they keep telling us the economy, telling us what the economy is doing.

W- meanwhile, families are [00:07:00] looking at their grocery bills, insurance, all that other jazz, and they’re seeing, sticker shock, if you will, for lack of a better term. Is there a disconnect that you’re seeing between economic messaging and what Americans are experiencing? 

Brian Mudd: Yeah. So there, there is a saying that I have that goes along with this.

I’ve always said that i- if you’re a politician, you can lie to people about what a particular policy will do, and those who are inclined to believe you will beli- believe you on the front side, but you can’t lie to people about what is or isn’t in their wallet because they know. And so in this particular case, it’s different in that this was, if anything, a likely miscalculation by President Trump, and I’m talking about Iran specifically.

So the first thing is the tariff policy. We can make economic arguments all day long about whether it was worth it going after tariffs the way he did to bring manufacturing into the United States. We’ve had a record amount of reshoring of manufacturing of foreign companies that are manufacturing in the United States that will pay economic [00:08:00] dividends for years, maybe decades to come.

But the here-and-now factor, the, the cost associated with tariffs is real- … and that adds to the affordability challenge. But then the, the… That’s the one punch, but the two punch, obviously, is Iran, and the president told us from the front end he thought it was going to be six weeks. 

Coach Fergie: Yeah. 

Brian Mudd: Here we are, and it’s coming up on election day, and it’s still not resolved, and we’re paying higher energy prices as a result.

And so it is the calculation of that dynamic. Now, when you talk about economics from a point of macroeconomics, you can make a case that things are pretty darn good. Our most recent economy, 3.4% growth GDP that is outstanding generally. The bigger issue, Coach, is that If you take a look at the four years of the Biden administration, for example, the average American net income versus expenses was over 1% worse by the end of those four years.

The old question, are you better off than you were four years ago? The average American was worse off demonstrably after the Biden presidency. During the first year of the Trump [00:09:00] presidency preceding the Iran war impact, we had gotten back to where the average American was getting ahead again. Sure.

The problem is since the end of February, the beginning of March- … when those energy prices from Iran hit, the average American, even with the economic growth rate being as good as it is, we’re not keeping up with it because inflation’s running 3.6- It, yeah, it’s out there … while the economy’s running 3.4.

Coach Fergie: Roger that. And Stu, so if you put yourself back in a strategy room- … I would love to have been a fly on the wall with you there, ’cause, me and you shoot the whatever breeze, you know- Sure … over a cava, and you tell me stories and they’re like, wow. It blows me away.

But if you were back in that strategy room and you were advising a Republican candidate today, right? What do you tell him to say to voters who feel this financial squeeze? And what would you tell, the, the Democrats to do differently? 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: For Republicans it would be all contrast.

Right now, if you look at the approval rating, people are unsatisfied and they’re not thrilled with Congress, they’re not thrilled with the Republicans. But guess what? They like Democrats less Approval ratings for Democrats are lower than Republicans. They’re lower than [00:10:00] Trump’s. 

So if I were a Republican, I’d be saying okay, you voted us out, guess what you’re gonna get?

You’re gonna get socialist policy, you’re gonna get even higher prices.” Do you think Democrats are gonna lower gas prices with all their green policies? These would be the kind of questions I would be asking on the campaign trail. Wow. Rather than, “Aren’t we awesome?” People aren’t, like Bryan said, people aren’t buying that right now because they’re feeling it at the gas pump.

What you can tell them is, “Okay, that’s fine. This is the policy of my opponent. My opponent wants to raise gas prices. He wants to get rid of coal and every other kind of nuclear- Go to electric … everything” And stuff like that. Yeah. Yeah. “And it’s gonna, your prices are gonna go up, not down. So that’s your choice.”

And making it a choice election rather than a referendum election, which is what Democrats want to do. 

Coach Fergie: Okay. And where is that disconnect, though, between the two parties with the… Again you’re talking to somebody that doesn’t follow it so much, but there’s fracking, there’s electric, there’s fuel.

Like- Yeah … wh- where did that disconnect really come from? 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: I think the biggest problem right now that people aren’t seeing is that this isn’t your grandfather’s [00:11:00] Democratic Party. The DSA is in charge, the Democrat Socialist of America. 

Coach Fergie: With that socialist 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: part. Yeah. I, it’s important. Yeah. Look at Cuba.

That hasn’t worked out so well. These are the people that have the energy in the Democratic Party right now. So if you think the Democrats are gonna come in and increase oil production in the United States, they’re not. If you think they’re gonna make it easier for permitting reform- Yeah … or for making it possible to have more manufacturing jobs and energy, they’re not.

That’s their stated policy. This is not my opinion. This is not me talking them down. This is what they have on their website. This is what Democrat leadership and the DSA wants. 

Coach Fergie: Wow. 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: So if I were a Republican candidate out on the trail, this is what I would be highlighting. You don’t like it now?

Guess what, buddy? And be talking about what they would be doing 

Coach Fergie: But you’re luck. 

Brian Mudd: So I will pick up on a point that Stu was making there. I think it is brilliantly articulated. The… I had wondered for a while what side of the Democrat Party would win out. There are a lot of things you can take a look at.

For example, with the Republican Party, there was that battle [00:12:00] between the establishment and what became the Tea Party, and it was the back and forth between the end of the ’08 election and then 2010 the rise of the Tea Party, back to a Romney and establishment in 2012.

Then Trump arrives on the scene, smashes the whole thing, remakes the Republican Party in his own image and here we are. Democrats have been going through that same type of battle for the soul of the party, and the DSA has won out. My theme this year is that this version of the Democrat Party is the most dangerous yet.

And the n- the day that happened was back in April, and the reason why, they’re… The top elected Democrat in this country is Chuck Schumer the Senate minority leader, the most establishment figure you would find as well. And so if the top establishment guy suddenly adheres to the policies of the hardest left faction in this party, you now know who has won.

That was the time during budget battles that Chuck Schumer articulated the view that we should abolish ICE and we should rein in Border Patrol. And so at the point where that [00:13:00] position was assumed from the Democrat establishment, all bets are off. What you have seen is that there are 186 DSA candidates running as Democrats in the United States in this election cycle.

Who would have thought in Florida one of the two hardest left candidates for a statewide office in this country would be running? And here you are with Angie Nixon. And so w- to Stu’s message, in the state of Florida or across the country, but Nikki Fried, she’s the head of the Democrat Party in the state of Florida, she said, “We are united as a party.”

David Jolly, top of the ticket for Democrats running for governor, he has held hands with Angie Nixon saying, “We are united.” You have had that right up and down. And so there is no distance in terms of the willingness to unify on a party platform that has moved to the abolish- Oh … ICE position within the party.

And this isn’t the, the Democrat Party of old. It is something that represents a much different policy than the, the Bill Clinton [00:14:00] wing. 

Coach Fergie: So trying to show a united front, but really they’re divided behind closed doors. And squad, we’re gonna get a little bit more into that after we get a knowledge mortgage nugget from my good friend, awesome sponsor, Steve Austin with Rise Mortgage.

Steve, take it away.

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Coach Fergie: Hey, Stevie, thank you so much, and totally blessed for your sponsorship, and I know you’ve already went out and voted, so bless you for doing that Both of you, let’s, l- let’s have a little bit of fun with this one.

Brian Mudd: Okay. 

Coach Fergie: So could Florida actually move in the opposite direction of the national political mood? And if it was to ever happen what would it tell us about where the state is heading? Stu? 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: I don’t think they’ll win na- statewide. I, but I do think the numbers, to Brian’s point earlier, th- there’s, we are like a plus 12, plus 14 state for Republicans.

We’re not gonna have a plus 12, plus 14 election. [00:17:00] So the institutional advantages Republicans have in the state will be eroded, but it’s enough to where they can withstand that. It’s like having a sea wall at six feet versus four feet. That’s where, when the wave comes in. 

So for Republicans here, that’s different than it’s gonna be nationwide in states like Maine or Kansas or Michigan, where the sea wall is much lower.

If there is a blue tide, a blue wave, it’s gonna go over that wall. Florida has the advantages there where they’re not, but what I’m gonna be looking at is how close is it. 

Angie Nixon shouldn’t be anywhere near Ashley Moody. Nowhere near her, but she is. I haven’t seen any advertising from her.

She’s got a couple ads on 95 up the road here. 

And it doesn’t even say Senate race. It just says she’ll protect healthcare. That’s all it is. So I, unless you knew, you wouldn’t know that was a campaign ad. 

But she’s gonna be close because of the mood, because of the electorate, because of, the structural midterm- Right

kind of issues that we have. 

Coach Fergie: And it’s your backyard here, Brian. What do you think of that? 

Brian Mudd: He’s spot on. And a couple of things about this. So if you take a look at the political [00:18:00] landscape in Florida, you asked the question, could Florida go opposite the tide? There are two midterm election cycles that have gone the Democrats’ way this century, the 2006 and the 2018.

And most people would tell you that the 2018 was a wave election. 2006 was the big blue wave. Most people, especially given what happened in state houses across the country, governor’s races and then also in the House of Representatives. But there was an outlier state i- in a, i- in terms of the Senate and also a state.

And so Republicans in that 2018 cycle actually netted Senate seats. And one of those happened to be in Florida. We had a pickup with outgoing Governor Rick Scott- … who ended up getting a pickup from incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. And that is so atypical in a, a blue wave type of cycle. So Florida in 2018, at a point where Democrats still held a voter registration advantage in the state did go the other direction.

[00:19:00] This is not that year. So Stu and I were talking ahead of time, and one of the things I’m taking a look at, Republicans are running in the state approximately 10 points worse than the average of 20- of 2018 and 2022 from where I sit. And so what does that likely mean given the voter registration trends and everything else?

My ceiling for most of the statewide races, agriculture race will probably be double digits but I think your ceiling is somewhere in the neighborhood of seven and a half points, and I think you’re probably taking a look at a lot of low mid single to ceiling seven and a half point victories.

And that’s the difference given the the seawall e- example that Stu ended up mentioning. So I don’t think Florida… Florida will look like an outlier, and that you’re going to see probably the entire Republican cabinet win, only because Republicans have been able to run up the score- not because the state from an, an overall voter composition standpoint has [00:20:00] outperformed. Democrats are out- So they’re 

Coach Fergie: Riding on what’s happened. 

Brian Mudd: That’s right. Okay. If you take a look by way of voter registration right now, Democrats are outperforming Republicans at the polls at this stage by over nine points.

Coach Fergie: Gotcha. And Stu, let’s go about 4,000 miles away. Something you brought up, right? The bombshell kind of out of Alaska. There’s a controversy involving the Senate race, the same name candidate and allegations of political interference. And what’s actually been established, and have you saw this kind of before, and what’s disputed, and can something like that change an outcome?

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah, I think it’d definitely change an outcome. It’s a close race that may not be as close as it would’ve been. There’s always shenanigans in politics. Both parties try to help. In the primary, they try to get the worst candidate on the other team to win. There’s always trying to put a Green Party candidate in or a Libertarian candidate.

We’re seeing that in a lot of Republican races- Sure … where Republicans lost ’cause a Libertarian candidate got in, only because Democrats put him in. This one’s different. This one, they picked a guy who had the same exact name as the incumbent Republican senator, Dan [00:21:00] Sullivan. They picked him and they lied about it.

For the last several months, they said, “We’ve had nothing to do with this. We don’t know what this is about.” Now it’s come out, text messages, firsthand testimony from the campaign manager, former campaign manager, and all sorts of hard evidence has shown that the Democrats were in fact involved in picking a guy only because he had the same name, in an effort to trick voters to vote against the incumbent Republican senator.

Coach Fergie: Wow. 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: I’ve never seen that. I’ve seen all kinds of dirty tricks in politics. This is the, by far the worst- So the 

Coach Fergie: guy’s not even qualified. 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: He’s a, a retired- he might be qualified … teacher who’s not campaigning. He has a website that one of these consultants built for him. He doesn’t campaign.

He’s not an actual candidate. He’s only doing it because he said, according to The New York Times, not The Wall Street Journal- yeah … The New York Times said he’s doing this because he likes the Democrat candidate for Senate and he hates Trump. 

That’s the only reason they picked this guy, is because he had the same name.

Like I said, I’ve seen all sorts of dirty things, but the fact that they did this intentionally and they lied to every reporter [00:22:00] in town about it, and now it’s come out that it’s true, I think that’s a real problem for them out there. I don’t know how much it’ll change the outcome of the election, but it’s a real problem.

That’s 

Coach Fergie: just … I had to ask that question, because it’s, I’ve never heard of it. Yeah. And I did a little dive after you sent it to me. 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah. 

Coach Fergie: I was like, whoa, wow, that’s never happened, with somebody just running under the same name. 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah, it’s- 

Coach Fergie: That’s- 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: There, there have been campaigns before where people with the same last name have run- Sure

or somebody, an outgoing candidate was named Smith, so somebody else named Smith ran thinking that it might help him. Who is 

Coach Fergie: it? Is it Kyle Snyder you said, or- 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Dan Sullivan. 

Coach Fergie: Dan Sullivan? 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah. Okay. In Alaska. 

Coach Fergie: Alaska. 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: But this is the first time where a party has been known to pick a guy- Solely because of his name.

Not a candidate saying hey, Smith won last time. My last name’s Smith, I’m gonna run. I can take-” … those coattails. No, this is intentional fraud- 

Coach Fergie: Right. 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah … by the national establishment, and they’ve been called out. The New York Times ripped them to shreds over 

Coach Fergie: it. Did they? 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah. 

Coach Fergie: Okay. So if I was to put you on the spot here, no political hedging, give me some predictions of what we’re looking at, [00:23:00] Brian.

Who controls the House, who controls the Senate? What race are you watching the closest, and are we gonna be surprised? 

Brian Mudd: So the two races that I am watching the closest happen to be two Senate races. It’s the Michigan Senate race, and it’s Florida Senate race. And the reason isn’t just for this cycle.

It is for the, the future of this country. As we’ve taken a look at the DSA gain control of the, the Democrat Party, how many people are willing to vote for a literal socialist in statewide races in, the case of Michigan, a swing state? 

Coach Fergie: My home pun- home state. 

Brian Mudd: And in, in the case of Florida- Yeah … what had become, or at least been known as the ultimate red state.

Stu mentioned earlier, and to me it’s my single biggest concern, we’re going to see over 40% of Florida’s voters vote for a socialist. That has implications and ramifications. So the, the outcomes and the margins in those two races, to me, are the most [00:24:00] compelling, not just for the outcome here on, on Tuesday, but for the future of the American politic.

Now, you take a look at prediction stuff. So there is one predictive indicator. And people talk about polls all day long. Some polls are terrible. A lot of state polls typically are. By the way, in Florida, if you went by the polls, the average of the polls in the last three governor’s races, you’d have ended up with the wrong result two of the three.

Wow. They’ve been wrong two-thirds of the time. They tend to be terrible. Last time even, there wasn’t a single pollster inside the margin of error for the size of DeSantis’ win. So- I don’t put a lot into state polling. What I do take a look at, though, the generic ballot has been historically predictive 100% of the time in mid- midterm cycles, going back to the advent of the polling age in the 1930s.

And Democrats are solid favorites there, and by a margin that sits about a half to one point m- better than it did for them- Sure … on election day 2018. And so for that reason I, I’m taking a look at Democrats will easily [00:25:00] win the House. If I had to throw a number at it I’m somewhere probably 27 plus, but 27 is a number I come up with quite a bit.

The redistricting plays a role. They will go to 

Coach Fergie: blue? 

Brian Mudd: Yeah, and if you f- twisted my arm and said, “Who controls the Senate in January today?” I would probably tell you Democrats, though, on, on my personal preferences, I’m hoping that Republicans can eke out 50 seats. You do it. 

Coach Fergie: Stuie, what are you thinking, buddy?

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah, I think, this point about the generic ballot, the last one I saw this morning was plus 10 for Democrats. Plus five, it’s gonna be a close race. Plus 10, i- it’s, House is probably gone. It’s close enough. The Senate, I think, because of there’s so many seats that are in the toss-up column I do think Republicans can hold it.

Yeah. I think it’ll be close. My big prediction is that Democrats next year are gonna take the wrong lesson from this race. They’re gonna look at all these DSA candidates that win or that come close, and they’re gonna think that’s the magic- Pack 

Coach Fergie: it … 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: that’s the magic we need for the presidency.” And the, the primary race is gonna go to a DSA candidate, which I think will be really good for Republicans.

I also think that if they do control the House, Democrats, they’re [00:26:00] gonna be passing so many pieces of crazy legislation that Republicans every day will be writing it down and make- … campaign ads out of it for the next two years. 

I think this will hurt Democrats if they do it, because they’re gonna take the wrong lesson.

Rather than saying, “It was a bad year. We won because it was a bad year. We won because of structures- That’s amazing. I’ve never 

Coach Fergie: heard this, 

Don ‘Stew’ Stewart: Yeah … but we’re, they’re gonna take the wrong lesson and say, “See? DSA candidates are what we need. This is what America wants.” And America, frankly, does not want that.

It’s a bad year for Republicans. That’s why DSA candidates are doing well. 

Coach Fergie: Gotcha. It’s gonna be interesting, you guys. Yes, sir. Can’t wait. It’s gonna be a, it’s gonna be interesting. I wish we had more time, because I have so much more to get to, but squat out there, please go vote. It’s your constitutional right.

Stu and I served our country, and I say it so we can have you to go out there and make your choice. And again I have no problem with anybody opinion too much, as long as it’s not shoved down my throat, as long as they vote. 

Squad? So get out there and vote. Thank you, WJNO.

Thank you, Don Stewart, Stuie, and Brian Mudd for sitting in on this. [00:27:00] Again, troops out there, go be safe, and again, I absolutely love your guts, but go vote.